For decades, terms like bomb cyclone, polar vortex and atmospheric river lived deep in meteorology textbooks. Today they’re part of everyday weather forecasts because these once-extreme weather events have become common.
In the same way, construction scheduling has always worked around the weather. But for builders and contractors today, the biggest weather concerns are less about average conditions and more about variability—shorter weather windows, heavier rainfall events and more frequent temperature extremes.
That’s why long-range weather outlooks matter, even when they can’t be nearly as specific as a five- or 10-day forecast.
Federal agencies like NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center use decades of historical data and probability modeling to assess likely weather patterns months ahead of time. These long-term outlooks provide valuable context for scheduling, labor planning and material performance decisions.
What’s shaping the 2026 weather outlook
ENSO: El Niño and La Niña
One of the most influential drivers of year-to-year variability is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO influences North American weather through changing temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that influence large-scale weather patterns. It affects seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States—tilting the odds in different regions of North America toward warmer vs. colder and wetter vs. drier seasons.
Currently, ENSO appears to be cycling out of a weak La Niña phase. La Niña typically results in cooler-than-average temperatures and increased precipitation in the northern U.S. and warmer-than-average temps and less precipitation across the South. As spring turns to summer, La Niña is expected to give way to El Niño—which tends to deliver warmer, drier weather in the north and cooler, wetter weather in the south.
The Climate Prediction Center emphasizes that the ENSO outlook is probabilistic, not deterministic. It doesn’t guarantee outcomes but shifts the odds toward certain conditions.
Long-term warming trends
Overlaying ENSO variability is a clear long-term warming trend. NOAA data shows rising baseline temperatures across the eastern United States, an increase in extreme heat days and heavier rainfall events even in regions where total annual precipitation hasn’t changed dramatically.
Growing variability and extremes
Perhaps most challenging for builders is increasing variability. Many regions are seeing longer dry spells punctuated by intense rain, rapid temperature swings and shorter predictable weather windows. These shifts, visible through the graphics tool at non-profit Climate Central, complicate sequencing and increase the cost of delays.
Regional long-range outlooks for builders
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Deep Southeast / Gulf-Atlantic Transition
Florida · Georgia · South Carolina
The seasonal outlook across Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is for above-normal temperatures and slightly-below-average rainfall.
The dominant risks are extreme heat, heavy rainfall events and hurricane-related disruption—both direct and indirect.
NOAA data shows an upward trend in extreme heat days and an increase in heavy rainfall events across the Southeast. Even if annual rainfall totals remain stable, precipitation is increasingly delivered in shorter, more intense bursts.
If a strong El Niño forms later this year, it could have a mitigating effect on heat while increasing seasonal precipitation. But forecasters can’t be certain whether an El Niño will form or how strong it might be.
For construction planning, this raises several challenges: heat stress affects crew productivity, heavy rain increases moisture intrusion risk and hurricane season requires greater schedule contingency. What’s changed most is the duration of high-heat conditions, which now extend further into spring and fall, compressing shoulder seasons that builders once relied on for productivity.
Seasonal outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reinforce the likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions and elevated precipitation risk during key construction months.
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Upper Southeast / Interior Transition Zone
North Carolina · Tennessee · Kentucky
In North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky, 2026 weather risks center on rainfall volatility, hotter summers and continued freeze-thaw exposure during winter.
Regional climate summaries show wetter winters and springs compared to historical norms, combined with faster-rising summer temperatures in inland areas.
For this year, the Climate Prediction Center projects normal to slightly above normal temperatures, and above-normal rainfall. For builders, this creates drainage and sequencing challenges early in the year, followed by heat-related productivity concerns in summer.
Envelope detailing and moisture control have become more important as rain events intensify, while winter freeze-thaw cycles continue to stress assemblies even as extreme cold days become less frequent.
The net effect is reduced predictability. Weather-related delays are harder to anticipate, and traditional assumptions about seasonal work patterns are less reliable.
- Ohio Valley / Lower Midwest
Indiana · Ohio
In Indiana and Ohio, saturated soils, inland flooding and volatile shoulder seasons
remain the dominant concerns heading into 2026.
The outlook for 2026 is for average temperatures and higher-than-average precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center. NOAA and Climate Central data demonstrate a long-term increase in intense precipitation events across the Ohio Valley, particularly in spring. These conditions can delay earthwork, foundations and site access during the first half of 2026.
While the region is seeing fewer extreme cold days overall, sharper cold snaps still occur and put freeze-thaw stress on materials and assemblies. What’s changing is predictability: shoulder seasons are less reliable, making it harder to plan around “typical” spring or fall conditions.
For contractors, this reinforces the need for flexible scheduling and careful coordination around early-season site work.
- Great Lakes Region
Michigan
In Michigan and the broader Great Lakes region, lake-effect snow, wind, ice events and heavy winter precipitation remain key risks.
The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is for average temperatures and above-average precipitation. NOAA Great Lakes climate summaries and research from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory highlight increasing winter variability, with abrupt temperature swings replacing long stretches of sustained cold.
For construction, this variability complicates cold-weather performance, material handling and logistics. Narrow construction windows and winter disruptions require careful planning, particularly for projects that depend on reliable winter access.
While overall warming trends continue, they do not necessarily translate to easier winter construction. Instead, they often mean more mixed precipitation events and unpredictable conditions.
Planning for weather-driven risk
Builders don’t need perfect forecasts to make better decisions. Understanding regional weather trends and the forces shaping them helps to plan schedules, select materials and manage risk more effectively.
As variability and extremes become more common, weather awareness increasingly functions as a competitive advantage—supporting smarter planning, fewer surprises and more resilient execution across the regions that Best Supply serves.
Best Supply can help keep your project on schedule with on-time delivery, careful material shakeout and flexibility to meet your needs as they change based on the weather. Click here to contact us.